NAR - "NAR Member Survey Shows Patience and Professionalism Pay Over Time" (5-10-07)
"Realtors® come from varied backgrounds, work mostly on commission and become successful over a period of time, according to a new member survey by the National Association of Realtors®. The typical member is 51 years old, works 40 hours per week and has been in the business for seven years. More than 1.3 million Realtors® – about half of all real estate licensees – are characterized in the highly detailed 2007 National Association of Realtors® Member Profile."
Bloomberg - "April Foreclosure Filings More Than Double Over 2006" (5-10-07)
"U.S. homeowners entered the foreclosure process in April at more than double the rate of a year ago as tightening credit made it more difficult to refinance and a swelling supply of unsold homes made it tough to sell. The number of homeowners in all three phases of foreclosure rose last month over the same period a year ago, according to Sacramento-based Foreclosures.com, which gathers data from county courthouses nationwide. Those receiving their first notice of foreclosure from a bank climbed 127 percent, those with homes going up for sale by auction jumped 164 percent and those whose homes were repossessed by banks went up 40 percent."
RealtyTrac - "MORE THAN 430,000 FORECLOSURE FILINGS REPORTED IN Q1" (5-10-07)
"(http://www.realtytrac.com/gateway_co.asp?accnt=137300), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released first-quarter data from its 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, showing more than 430,000 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — reported nationwide during the first three months of the year, up 27 percent from the previous quarter and up 35 percent from the first quarter of 2006. The nation’s quarterly foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 264 households was the highest quarterly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report 27 months ago."
Market Watch - "House of denial" (5-10-07)
"Since the market bubble burst in early 2000, everyone has credited housing with not only minimizing the negative impact of the losses, but subsequently generating a tremendous recovery in both equity prices and individual wealth -- and rightly so. Yet now, when all signs point to a rapid end to the glory days of real estate, we appear dead set on believing that the housing sector alone is not powerful enough to throw a wrench into the economic machine. Again, that's a rather unbalanced view.
The idea that a widespread downturn in home prices will not have a major impact on the economy is simply a pipedream. Despite this, true believers in the housing market still abound. Why? Here are a few reasons offered by the acolytes in support of the idea that housing weakness won't lead to large-scale suffering:"
Bloomberg - "Fed Keeps Rate at 5.25%; Says Inflation is `Predominant' Risk" (5-10-07)
"The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark U.S. interest rate at 5.25 percent and said inflation remains the 'predominant' risk for the economy. 'The committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected,' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement today after meeting in Washington. 'Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth.'"
Charles Hugh Smith - "Interest Rate See-Saw" (5-10-07)
"It's a given that rising supply (inventory) and slackening demand (fewer buyers) lead to price declines in any market--for instance, housing. Since interest rates fell for an entire generation (22 years) from their peak in 1981, the relationship between housing prices and interest rates has been largely forgotten or at least neglected. As interest rates rise, the "see-saw" of higher rates and dropping house values will place pricing pressure on even the most desirable housing."
Yahoo - "Congress debates mortgage reforms" (5-10-07)
"Congress is looking at potential reforms to risky home lending practices, although a House subcommittee hearing on Tuesday suggests lawmakers are still sorting out the complex workings of the mortgage market and wondering whether reforms will be necessary or helpful. With the number of foreclosures nationally jumping 47 percent in March from a year ago, lawmakers are weighing whether new lending rules are needed or whether the market is already in the process of self-correcting. The task of crafting reforms is made more complicated by the long list of players involved in mortgage transactions."
Market Watch - "Toll cites trickle-up effect of subprime" (5-10-07)
"Toll Brothers Inc. said Wednesday that it doesn't expect to meet its full-year profit outlook and that more stringent lending standards as a result of problems in subprime mortgages are reverberating in its own luxury-home market. The Horsham, Pa.-based company reported preliminary results ahead of its full financial results for the second quarter, scheduled for release on May 24. For the quarter ended April 30, Toll said home-building revenue fell 19% from a year earlier, while net signed contracts dropped 25%."
Blown Mortgage - "Schahrzad Berkland Podcast Interview Series" (5-10-07)
"In this edition of the Blown Mortgage audio podcast series we shake it up a bit and take time to talk with a housing analyst with an interview with Schahrzad Berkland of CaliforniaHousingForecast.com. Schahrzad has a keen eye on the housing market in Southern California and uses statistical analysis to make predictions of where she thinks the market is headed. Her views are not for the weak of heart. She anticipates and easy drop of 30-40% of home prices, and further in some areas. While I don't necessarily agree with the level of severity she predicts, she does make a compelling case using interesting and statistic-based arguments regarding the current housing market and the problems with it. This is a great interview and I recommend that even if you don't believe there is a big problem in housing that you listen to what Schahrzad has to say and learn from her insight."
Orange County Register - "Impac reports $121.7 million first-quarter loss" (5-10-07)
"Losses are mounting at Impac Mortgage Holdings of Irvine as it struggles with delinquent loans and a loss of appetite among investors for loans in the credit category above subprime. The real estate investment trust reported late Thursday a first-quarter loss of $121.7 million, compared to a profit of $85.6 million a year ago. In the fourth quarter, Impac reported a loss of $59.5 million."
Monday, May 14, 2007
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