Voice of San Diego - "Motivated Sellers Abound" (2-15-07)

"I've been doing a lot of yapping about the importance of must-sell inventory (as a catalyst for home price declines) and of mortgage defaults (as an indicator of must-sell inventory). I now offer the inevitable graph, with data kindly provided by local foreclosure guru Ward Hannigan."

"The blue line indicates the monthly number of "notices of default," which are sent when borrowers have neglected their mortgage payments. The red line indicates the number of "trustee's deeds," which are filed if lenders end up foreclosing on the defaulting borrowers' homes. The foreclosure line lags the default line, for obvious reasons, but both data series give a decent read on the amount of must-sell inventory out there."