Friday, April 28, 2006

NAR - "Vacation-Home Sales Rise to Record, Investment Sales Plummet in 2006" (4-30-07)

"Second-home sales were mixed in 2006, with the combined total of vacation- and investment-home sales accounting for 36 percent of all existing and new residential transactions ¿ down from 40 percent of sales in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors®. NAR¿s annual Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey shows vacation-home sales rose 4.7 percent to a record 1.07 million in 2006 from 1.02 million in 2005, while investment-home sales fell sharply, down 28.9 percent to 1.65 million in 2006 from a record 2.32 million in 2005. By contrast, primary residence sales fell 4.1 percent to 4.82 million in 2006 from 5.02 million in 2005."

MortgageDailyNews.com
- "What Do High Gas Prices Mean For The Housing Market?"

This is a great article that looks at the repercussions of rising energy prices on the housing market.

Along with gas prices, many southern California cities are hiking utility prices to cover costs of infrastructure upgrades. The city of Riverside just approved a water rate increase
(see article) of approximately 12 percent for the first year and 10 percent per year for the following four years taking effect on November 1 2006. LADWP is also considering utility hikes (see LADWP article). These hikes combined with other rising energy costs is one more added expense for many who over-stretched their budget to get into the real estate market. Even worse would be if large businesses decide to move elsewhere because of these new and rising energy costs. What is the tipping point? At point will people and businesses take their money elsewhere? Wait a minute, they already are!



For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

YahooNews.com - "Pulte, Centex see home orders tumble" (4-26-06)

I heard a gentleman from the National Association of Realtors on KNX1070 today speak about the unexpected activity in the real estate market this last month. He predicted that we'd see a 5-6% decrease in prices by the end of 2006 nationally and confirmed that this was the "soft landing" that everyone has been talking about. Interesting since the term "soft landing" is a relatively new phrase and one the NAR started using not too long ago.

David Lereah (NAR’s chief economist) writes in a report dated September 2005 that "The Pending Home Sales Index is at the fifth highest reading on record, meaning we can expect historically high home sales to continue in the months ahead" (see NAR article). In California, numbers were realtively stagnant with only a few counties seeing much of an upward trend. (see CAR sales/price report for September 2005). Notice the year over year is still exceptional but the month to month is what you want to look at.

On November 15, 2005, Lereah tells us that, “These historically high home price gains are the simple result of more buyers than sellers in the market,” he said. “The good news is that inventory levels are improving, and housing supply will come close to buyer demand in 2006. In other words, we expect a healthy and more balanced market next year.” (see NAR article) OK...well I'm a little confused. Two months ago the story was a little different. So as of November, he's saying he expects the US to return to a more "healthy" market. I didn't realize it was unhealthy. He didn't mention in the September article that record sales and prices were a bad thing.

Anyway, on December 12, 2005 Lereah says “The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market. Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level-out at a high plateau – a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle. This transition to a more normal and balanced market is a good thing” (See NAR article). There's the word..."slowdown." That definitely was not in any previous articles. Thankfully he lets us know that a "slowdown" is a good thing. So far, no red flags, right? I wonder if he was tipped off by builders like Toll Brothers slashing projected output. (See Builders Online article 12-1-2005).

In another article released in December of 2005, Lereah says “You can put air in a balloon and it expands or you can take air out and it shrinks. Various metro markets got real hot over the last four years. Air went into those balloons and the prices went up. But now, air is coming out of the balloons. We’re hearing a hissing sound not a pop…there’s a soft landing ahead.” (See article) Oye! The "soft landing" phrase. He closes the article by telling us,
"If you’re not a homeowner and you’re thinking of purchasing a home -- do it! 'As a property owner, you’ll benefit from equity and wealth gains over the long-term. If you expect to keep the home for at least four years, there’s more risk to staying out of the market than getting in.'" Wow! From a slowdown to a soft landing all within the same month. Not a great warning system! But he does let us in on the fact that maybe he's thinking now that the "soft landing" might take around four years.

NAR gave three months notice the market was changing and even in the December article, Lehear touted this healthy market is what we've all been waiting for. I personally know a few new home buyers and new investors who are not looking for a slowing of the market. They got in late and overextended themselves to do so. They have known no other kind of market and are unaware of the ramifications and the huge swings California can go through.

The article from Yahoo! at the top of the page talks about two large builders and how profits are up but new orders are down. What could that possibly mean? Well, in places like California where downtown Los Angeles is seeing over 20,000 new condo units installed in the next four years, it means builders will most likely slow down and even hault construction on projects they don't think will land in a good market. That means jobs may be lost. It means migration may increase more then it already has, and we might be in for more then a "soft landing."

Thank you Robb for sending in the Yahoo link. Please keep the stories coming gang! And write some comments.


Friends Don't Let Friends Get Interest Only Loans!


For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

RealEstateJournal.com - "Builders Add Incentives To Entice More Buyers"

Now that inventory is starting to build in what use to be some of the hottest areas and now that the "slowdown" can't be denied, builders are increasingly adding incentives to move inventory. Last week, The Norris Group, was forwarded a postcard for a home tract in Corona, CA. The builders were offering a fully loaded Mercedes with the purchase of a home. They were million dollar homes but that's a $80,000 incentive. Anyone else hear of some creative and expensive incentives?

For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.

Friday, April 21, 2006

CNN.com - "Housing prices put Americans on the move" (4-20-06)

"The movement of Americans from north to south is trending as strong as ever, according to the latest report on net domestic migration released today from the Census Bureau." Los Angeles is listed as one of the big losers having many angelinos leave the high priced coastal areas for the Inland Empire.

For those who live in the Inland Empire, haven't you noticed a large upswing in "For Sale" signs of late? I drove through the Wood Street area last week and could not believe the number of "Open House" and "For Sale" signs littering Magnolia Avenue corners. Think it's seasonal?





For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
InmanNews.com - "Feds to tighten 'exotic' real estate loan rules" (3-30-06)

It's a little later but better late then never I suppose. Will lenders pay for the creative loans being made? I personally have several friends who bought into the market late for fear that prices would never stop going up. They all overextended their budget and all got adjustable loans. They firmly believe that in a year, they will be able to refinance and switch to a fixed-rate. Anyone else have friends or family doing the same thing?


For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Thank you Matt for sending in this picture. This is from a condo complex in Virginia.

"Have you guys seen this picture yet? We're now up to 47 lockboxes on this bench outside of the complex."


Think it could get this bad in California?

For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
AOAUSA.com - "How to Protect Yourself from the Coming Real Estate Crash"

Some sound advice to protect your money form the crash. Unsure of publish date on this one. Thank you Will for bringing this to our attention. Please stay away from adjustable loans!

For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
SignOnSanDiego.com - "High housing prices a factor in Census Bureau's report" (3-16-06)

Late in 2005, Bruce was told San Diego would never lose population because it was a "lifestyle" city. Well, this article claims that for the first time in 30 years, migration out of San Diego has begun according to the U.S. Census Bureau. C.A.R. numbers from late March will tell the same story.


For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Yahoo.com - "Going up, down and sideways: Top 30 cities to watch" (3-13-06)

This article's first paragraph couldn't say it any better. It's a wonder how some economists still have their jobs. For large builders who are in pre-construction and construction phases of large housing projects in California, wouldn't they have liked to know that the market was going to slow down and relatively quickly? By the time construction is complete, will there be buyers? For those of you who attended the "California Crash" in February or have bought the course, Bruce documents prognostication very well in Chapter 2, "Pearls from the Past."

Check out this article's prediction of bubble "blowers," "sitters," and "busters" nationwide.


For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
ArabNews.com - "Iran, Oil and Euros: The War Scenario" (2-21-06)

What if Iran succeeds in creating another currency other then the US dollar for the oil industry? What would that mean for our economy if the Euro took the dollars place? According to this Arab news source, several countries and large companies are more then happy to make the switch. This news site also claims Washington is playing up Iran's nuclear program so they can attack Iran and stop it from creating this system. Arab News also mentions the Federal Reserve's decision to stop publishing M3 data which tracks how many US dollars are held by foreigners. Upon visiting the Federal Reserve site, they site different reasons.

For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.
Yahoo.com - "Housing Slowdown Ripples Through Economy" (3-6-06)

How long will the media continue to use "slowdown," "cooling off," and "leveling off" when prices have been doing so for some time? When third quarter numbers finally surface, I wonder what terms they will use.

For more information about The Norris Group's California hard money loans or our California Trust Deed investments, visit the website or call our office at 951-780-5856 for more information. For upcoming California real estate investor training and events, visit The Norris Group website and our California investor event calendar. You'll also find our award-winning real estate radio show on KTIE 590am at 6pm on Saturdays or you can listen to over 170 podcasts in our free investor radio archive.